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STRATEGY.TXT
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1988-04-06
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Managing Return On Investment - A Strategy
Return on investment compounded by time equals wealth.
Consider an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) in the
implementation of this concept. An annual $2000 investment
earning an 8% return will build a $518,000 nest egg over a
forty year period. The same annual investment, earning 12%
will produce nearly triple that amount, $1,534,000, over the
same period.
Value ($ thousands)
Yrs Amount 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
┌─────┬─────────┬────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ $20,000 │ │
│ 20 │ + │ 79 103 138 185 249 337 457 620 │
│ │ $2000/yr│ │
├─────┼─────────┼────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ $20,000 │ │
│ 30 │ + │ 117 177 273 428 668 1081 1732 2777 │
│ │ $2000/yr│ │
├─────┼─────────┼────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ │ │
│ 40 │ $2000/yr│ 121 190 310 518 885 1534 2684 4720 │
│ │ │ │
└─────┴─────────┴────────────────────────────────────────┘
If one does not live ostentatiously, this difference may seem
unimportant, as half a million dollars seems quite sufficient
for retirement. Until one considers inflation. Adjusted
downward to today's dollars, assuming 6% inflation, one's
purchasing power would be reduced to $121,000 (8%-6%=2%) and
$310,000 (12%-6%=6%), respectively. The importance of
achieving the higher rate of return now becomes quite clear!
But how can an individual monitor his rate of return and
thereby hopefully control its direction? One approach would
be to invest solely in low-risk original issue fixed income
instruments (e.g. bonds, CD's, and Treasury notes) with the
intent to hold to maturity. One could then determine the
approximate rate of return at any one time by computing a
dollar weighted average of the coupon rates of all securities
held. However this approach would be self-defeating because
the rates of return one would inevitably receive would not
exceed inflation by much over the long term.
The higher return on investment needed to retire confortably
generally requires investment in equities and/or investment in
fixed income instruments timed to take advantage of interest
rate swings. This can be done directly or through mutual funds.
However, since such investments do not have fixed rates of
returns nor guaranteed redemption values, determining and
tracking one's rate of return becomes important, yet is also
more difficult.
_
In the case of mutual funds, one might try to rely upon the
return rates stated by the fund managers or reported by tracking
services. These rates, however, are for a specified time
period, and generally will not represent the rates one has
actually achieved. This is due to the differences in timing and
amount of an investor's actual remittances and redemptions
versus that assumed for the fund's reported rate.
The resolution to the timing issue is to compute return on
investment (ROI) using the internal rate of return method. This
calculational technique takes into account both the timing and
dollar weighting of cash flows into and out of a portfolio as
well as initial and ending portfolio values.
Because internal rate of return must be computed using iterative
calculational method, for all practical purposes it must be
calculated by computer. Techserve, Inc.'s family of portfolio
managers, PFROI, CAPTOOL, and PFPRO, compute IRR-ROI as well as
perform many other portfolio management functions.
A typical strategy for an investor using PFROI or CAPTOOL would
be to set a target rate of return pegged to an index such as the
S&P 500 index or the consumer price index. For example, he may
wish to exceed the S&P 500 index by 3% (because dividends not
included in S&P 500), but also at a minimum exceed the CPI by at
least 8% over the long run. Since PFROI and CAPTOOL can both
track up to three indices at a time, the user would record the
value of these indices each time a portfolio valuation is
recorded and stored.
The investor then would have PFROI or CAPTOOL generate perform-
ance reports to see how the portfolio has performed versus these
indices over both the long and short run. Lagging performance
versus the S&P 500 would indicate that the investor is being too
conservative in investment selections and should re-evaluate his
holdings. Failure to stay ahead of the CPI growth rate by the
target margin would indicate a need to rebalance the portfolio
in favor of more inflation-proof holdings (e.g. real estate,
REIT's).
Upon nearing retirement, an investor would then typically reduce
his targeted return and re-deploy his assets accordingly in
favor of safety. Investors who have successfully pursued their
strategy, however, may find themselves with excess funds which
they can commit to a separate aggressive portfolio in pursuit of
additional growth in wealth during retirement.